Учитывая, сколько было на днях паники из-за crazy inverted yield curve, удивительно, насколько мало говорят о том, что доходность 30-летних облигаций минфина, которая после избрания Трампа колебалась в районе 3%, упала до исторического минимума ниже 2%:
People are talking a lot about the inverted yield curve but not, I think, enough about the reason the curve inverted: the incredible plunge in long-term rates, from 3.2% last fall to just 1.45% this morning. That represents a huge shift toward economic pessimism.
The yield curve inversion is because the Fed hasn’t followed long rates all the way down (yet); but it’s the rate plunge that’s telling you about economic sentiment. So what’s going on?
I think we have to be fair and acknowledge that it might be a bubble: people buying bonds bc others are buying bonds. But I think it’s more about investors finally capitulating on the reality of Trumpism.
They’re finally admitting that the tax cut was a fizzle, that the brief sugar high is over. And they’re finally realizing that Trump is serious about trade war, and maybe just now noticing how far he’s going
And it’s not just the bond market. Polling is starting to show public pessimism about the direction of the economy, although this isn’t showing up in spending (yet)
Trump had a remarkably long honeymoon on the economy. But glum reality seems to be setting in.
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