Теократический Монархист (ign) wrote,
Теократический Монархист
ign

Трамп, Иран и Израиль, 2-й сезон

 

(Первая часть здесь)

Даже самые фанатичные трамписты понимают, что Трамп приближается к выборам с катастрофическими результатами во внешней политике. В оставшийся год с небольшим надо предъявить публике хоть какой-то прорыв хоть где-то. Но какой и где?

Последние дни стало очевидно, что один из вариантов, которые прощупывает пиар-команда Трампа, это «прорыв» на иранском направлении.

Никто, конечно, не рассматривает серьезно возможность того, что под нажимом Трампа Иран пойдёт на какие-то существенные уступки. Но Трампу это и не нужно, ему нужна картинка. В Израиле серьёзно обеспокоены «сценарием USMCA»: Трамп рвёт и мечет, какое это ужасное соглашение NAFTA, объявляет о жестких тарифах, требует уступок, после чего … заключает «новое» соглашение, отличающееся от старого только мелкими деталями, и объявляет об этом как о крупнейшей дипломатической победе.

Не знаю, насколько это реально — зависит от того, насколько велико влияние MBS и Нетаньяху в Вашингтоне, думаю, что пренебрегать этим не стоит — но хочу процитировать по этому случаю статью израильского журналиста Бена Каспита в нишевом американском издании Al-Monitor:

Once upon a time, members of the Israeli intelligence used to say that the only thing they absolutely must know at any given moment is what is going on in the head of the neighboring Arab ruler: What is he thinking; what are his plans. Today in Israel, the focus is more on Trump’s head. Is it possible to predict his policies? Is he rational? Emotional? Impulsive? Is there some secret formula that would allow us to understand where he’s heading?

In the pre-Trump period, analysis of American policy was composed of quite a number of variables: the balance of power between the Senate and the House of Representatives; AIPAC influence; internal mapping of the president’s advisers and insiders according to their specific gravity; the president’s ideology and political considerations. Today, all these are gone with the wind. Trump is a completely different animal; nothing is final, nothing is predictable, if it’s logical it won’t happen and what happens isn’t always logical. And so forth.

In the past, Israel viewed Trump’s exit from the nuclear agreement with Iran — under pressure from Netanyahu — as a major achievement. But the security experts added a red-light warning: Trump’s future behavior cannot be predicted. Will he continue to pressure Iran the way he himself preaches? How will he act when the Iranians up the ante? Is he capable of completely losing interest and abandoning the issuesuddenly, as he did in regard to North Korea? The answer to these two questions is: Yes. Yes, he is capable. He is capable of anything and everything.

About a year ago, Israel Defense Forces pundits predicted that the Iranians would gradually start to abandon the nuclear agreement following the American exit and the renewal of sanctions. This Iranian behavior was predictable and even obvious. The only problem was not knowing how Trump would react. The Israeli assessment regarding Iran was fully realized; even the various stages were anticipated in advance. The important variable missing from the equation was, and remains, the American president. Concerns over Trump’s behavior if and when the Iranians reach the point of no return on the nuclear bomb were expressed hesitantly in the past. Now, the worries have worsened dramatically. When the Iranians will feel that they have been backed into a corner, when they consider whether to quit the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and “rush to the bomb,” then what will Trump do? The Israeli fear is that he will simply lose interest, and this apprehension has intensified in recent days. Today, the higher-ups in Jerusalem eye the new conciliatory Trump with longing, praying that it will pass.

In recent weeks, the telephone line connecting Netanyahu to Ambassador Ron Dermer — his man in Washington, the White House and Las Vegas (Sheldon Adelson’s headquarters) — has been in constant use. Dermer is also an emissary to American Bible Belt states, mainly the pro-Israel evangelical community. Dermer’s present task is to make sure that the president will understand — but not via the Israelis — that certain presidential actions on the Iranian issue may cause his Evangelical base to desert him on Election Day next year. Mossad chief Yossi Cohen has also been summoned more than once by Israeli leadership to analyze scenarios that could arise should Trump lift economic and military pressure on Iran in exchange for negotiations. Cohen also has good access to the White House and, like many others, is trying to understand Trump. Yet no unequivocal conclusion has emerged from these discussions.


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Tags: израиль, иран, трамп
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