June 13th, 2020


Из интервью Айзека Азимова (1975)

Заключительный вопрос и ответ на него

— Dr. Asimov, most people when they think about the future try to reach out to the year 2000; let’s try 500 years from now. What kind of planet do you see?

— One of two, depending on what happens by the year 2000. If by the year 2000 we have not solved the problems that face us today, then I would say 500 years will see a world, containing a technological civilization in ruins, in which there will be a relatively small number of human beings, sort of surviving and with New York City as the most magnificent ruin in the history of the human race.

— And the other …?

— If we succeed in solving our problems today, then 500 years from now we can well be living in a kind of utopia, a world with a relatively small population, carefully husbanding their resources with a working colony on the Moon and perhaps on Mars, reaching out to the entire solar system, taking advantage of advances in technology we now can’t even imagine; living under conditions which when they look back on he present, they will be horrified and wonder how we could have survived.

Интервью полностью, например, здесь.

В принципе, очень похоже, что Азимов был недалёк от истины; вполне может быть, что последняя возможность направить историю по какому-то более или менее устойчивому пути развития была упущена где-то в районе 2000-го года, и что сейчас уже слишком поздно.